MTF MGMT

04-19-11 Trade - USD/JPY Long @ 82.50

2011-04-20T13:25:00.002-04:00

Basically what we're betting on over here is a S+R play w/ a Harmonic Pattern setting up on the Support Zone.

In this 1st pic you see a Gartley/Butterfly (a Gartlerfly - a harmonic pattern that qualifies for both depending on where the X starting point is) with a convergence point between 82.44 - 82.41.

The convergence zone also lined up with a 61.8% Fib retracement of the previous larger up-swing (as seen on the 240min pic above - with the right gray circle being the pattern on the 30min chart). So the pattern meets our criteria of having a convergence zone.

The above pic shows how price broke the declining trend line and is currently retesting the support zone.

From an Elliott Perspective the whole decline from 85.51 looks corrective...Either a 2, 4, or X if this whole move from the 76.21 low is a massive dbl or triple zig zag. Its long and deep, messy, and difficult to count, however its a perfect example of alternation if its a Wave 4 or X as the first 'corrective' move (labeled wave 2 in the pic above) was sidways and short. Should this be the end of the correction prices should bounce from this level to challenge the high @ 85.50.

I have a small position @ 82.50, with a stop @ 82.10. Tgt open for now.

Stack @ 82.45, another pattern formed, however this one looked like it have a very imulsive X-A leg.

FX Analysis Jan 20/2011 - Euro

2011-01-20T18:54:00.001-05:00

Euro:

I've got 2 different scenarios layed out for the Euro, both are immediately Bearish with the main difference being the degree of the decline.

Scenario 1 -
Euro has completed 5 waves down (in red) and is in the process of correcting the decline, with what seems to be an Impulsive 5 wave .a (red). Should the advance be complete, Euro should fall in 3 waves, completing w .b (red), before advancing again to complete w .c (red).

Its a tricky situation bc the correction has already reached the 4th wave of lesser degree w .iv (red) - which is one of the common turn around points for corrections, however price has not yet reached 50% of the W. 1 (white) retracement which stands @ 1.3575.

Scenario 2 -
I'm a Euro Bear and have my money on this scenario, I'm already short Euro and have an avg. short price of 1.3842.

This count see's w. 1 (white) still in progress with the completion of w. iv (red) @ 1.3538, and price is currently carving out a 1-2 (green) of a 1-2 (blue), which may also be the right shoulder of a head and shoulders reversal pattern. There are a lot of funky trendlines running through this area, so price is getting caught up in them as the bulls and bears decide whos going to that this thing to the next level. Daily and 60min stochs are overbought and coming out of overbought respectively.

Long Euro Set-up

2010-11-01T18:49:00.002-04:00

07/10/10 - Aussie Swing Trade Set Up

2010-10-07T17:51:00.000-04:00

Entry 0.9843
Stop 0.9926
Tgt 0.9650

The Set-Up

The Target

Sell Cable + 46 Pips

2010-09-30T15:52:00.000-04:00

Trade Journal/Record Sheet

Pair GBP/USD

Buy/Sell Sell

Entry 1.5823

Stop (pips) 1.5784

Take Profit (pips) 1.5784

RRR

Why did you take the trade? What was the Set-up? Additional confirmation? (Stochs? RSI? Candlesticks?)

What was the thought process?

After Tgt hit: Why was that the exit? (Fibs? W1 = W5)

What happened after the exit?

- Did Price turn around right away? (good)

- Did price keep going? (bad)

If so, why? (Incorrect count? Markets just run?)

Selling Aussie Yen 30/09/2010

2010-09-30T15:42:00.000-04:00

Trade Journal/Record Sheet

Pair Aussie Yen

Buy/Sell Sell

Entry 81.07

Stop (pips) 81.35

Take Profit (pips) 80.27 + 79.71

RRR

Why did you take the trade? What was the Set-up? Additional confirmation? (Stochs? RSI? Candlesticks?)

Wasn't 100% certain on the wave count, however the pair looked like it was topping out, making a dbl top on the 4 hr chart. Also the Aussie and S&P were looking like they were topping. So Wave 1 down seemed completed, and Wave 2 red (up) looked like it wanted to turn around @ the 61,8, however it it ended up going upward, and turned at a 'Todd Gordon Quad Fibonacci' turning around point which was at the 78.2 % level.

What was the thought process?

I didn't think of taking this trade initially, bc I wasn't sure of the wave count. However after I calculated the RRR I figured to give it a shot. I seemed to catch it right at the top, and after 12:00 pm I noticed everything slowed down, and didn't want to wait to see if the projected tgts would get hit. So I Closed it at market for a 45 pip profit.

After Tgt hit: Why was that the exit? (Fibs? W1 = W5)

What happened after the exit?

- Did Price turn around right away? (good)

- Did price keep going? (bad)

If so, why? (Incorrect count? Markets just run?)

Long Swissy (30/09/2010) + 55 Pips

2010-09-30T11:43:00.000-04:00

Trade Journal/Record Sheet

Pair USD/CHF

Buy/Sell Buy

Entry 0.9764

Stop (pips) 0.9744

Take Profit (pips) 0.9790 + 0.9815

RRR

Why did you take the trade? What was the Set-up? Additional confirmation? (Stochs? RSI? Candlesticks?)

Reversed as Euro Short. Looked as though some type of bottom was formed - even if short term. Large 60-240min RSI divergence noted. Saw a potential first and third (RED) waves up, so decided to go long on the potential fifth. Entered on the Fourth Wave pullback.

What was the thought process?

First time watching so many short term trades, so it was kind of hectic, however I already nailed the pound, and saw that although the CAD made a huge bearish move, it couldn't break support and started to revers. Euro started coming off highs and S&P resistance gave me confidence in the USD.

After Tgt hit: Why was that the exit? (Fibs? W1 = W5)

What happened after the exit?

- Did Price turn around right away? (good)

- Did price keep going? (bad)

If so, why? (Incorrect count? Markets just run?)

Short Euro 30/09/2010 + 61 Pips

2010-09-30T11:02:00.001-04:00

Trade Journal/Record Sheet

Pair Euro

Buy/Sell Sell

Entry 1.3656

Stop (pips) 1.3688

Take Profit (pips) 1.3595 + 1.3555

RRR

Why did you take the trade? What was the Set-up? Additional confirmation? (Stochs? RSI? Candlesticks?)

Possible Wave 1 down, with a wave 2 retracement upto the 61.8%.

What was the thought process?

Seems as though Euro has faced some serious daily resistance, along W/ the S&P 500. Basically shorted @ S&P resistance. Pound came crashing down right before, and the Aussie was showing weakness. Weather this was the actual turn around or a correctional pullback, it seemed like a good short.

Note: Slight tgt Errors on top pic. Pic below has correct labels.

After Tgt hit: Why was that the exit? (Fibs? W1 = W5)

What happened after the exit?

- Did Price turn around right away? (good)

- Did price keep going? (bad)

If so, why? (Incorrect count? Markets just run?)

Long USD/CAD - Sept/28/2010

2010-09-29T17:18:00.002-04:00

Trade Journal/Record Sheet

Pair USD/CAD

Buy/Sell Buy Limit

Entry 1.0275

Stop (pips) 1.0180 (95 Pips)

Take Profit (pips) 1.0675 + 1.01005

RRR 1-4 + 1-7.5

Why did you take the trade? What was the Set-up? Additional confirmation? (Stochs? RSI? Candlesticks?)

Potential Green Wave 3 within a Blue Wave 3 Forming within a Larger White (intermediate) Degree Wave 3.

Third of a third of a third On multiple time-frames. This should be a longer term trade, with additional opportunities in the meanwhile.

What was the thought process?

I've been in this trade with two other positions for over 2 weeks and it has been ranging, so I closed out a cpl of positions and am looking to re-enter at a better price. The overall position will be smaller, so I won't feel so attached to the trade, and with more margin available I'll be able to keep an eye out for other opportunities which I've also had an eye on, such as a long USD/JPY, and short Euro or Aussie.

After Tgt hit: Why was that the exit? (Fibs? W1 = W5)

What happened after the exit?

- Did Price turn around right away? (good)

- Did price keep going? (bad)

If so, why? (Incorrect count? Markets just run?)

Updates b4 the Big Short

2010-08-06T18:44:00.000-04:00

Based Elliott Wave, you'll know that the financial markets should be setting up for a large scale drop that should last months, and see the Dow fall a few thousand points, with some predictions saying as low as 3500 and 350 in the S&P.

I've personally tried picking a top to this by going Long USD vs multiple pairs (Euro, GBP, Aussie), and by shorting the S&P Via the AUD/JPY. I've also had 1 trade in Gold go against me and I'm in another one as I'm typing this. The end result has been a chewed up trading account. However I do believe after today's NFP release and multiple spikes across various currencies that perhaps we may be approaching an end to the equity/euro/aussie/gbp rallies.

Here's my analysis:

Euro:

Euro Daily

Daily: We have seen a Dbl Zig zag complex correction, which has seemed to top @ significant resistance and the 200 sma.

Euro 240min

240Min: We have the wave structure of the dbl zig zag in better detail. The count is currently showing 5 waves up within c Blue (Minor). And within the fifth wave (purple) we can count 4 waves forming of orange degree.

Euro 15min

15Min: We have a 3rd orange wave and then a 4th that , looks to be created. i suspect after the 5th orange wave we will have the completion to the correction.

I'm looking around 1.3316-1.3325 for a potential turn around point.

Sweet Lil trade on EUR/GBP +101 Pips

2010-07-28T00:00:00.001-04:00

I usually don't trade this pair but have noticed some really sweet counts on it during the past few trading days. So yesterday I noticed a potential set-up and took it.

Entry: 2 positions @ 8387 - If my count was correct I would be entering a Wave 3 Orange down, within a Wave 5 Green. This also happened to be the 38.2 Fib retracement of Wave 1.
Stop: 8420 - Above the beginning of Wave 1 Orange. If the count was correct, price wouldn't retrace past the beginning of Wave 1 Orange.
Tgt: Open - I figured since Wave 1 Green was longer than Wave 3 Green, my tgt would have to be before the length of Wave 3 since Wave 3 can't be the shortest. I figured though that with a risk of about 30 pips and with wave 3 green being around 149 pips, I'd be able to get at least a 2-1 RRR.

This was the setup:

Because I had no solid target, I looked at wave structure as my leading indicator. After I saw a completed 5 waves down from my entry I closed out half my position @ 8336 for a Gain of 51 Pips.

Heres the charts with a potential Wave 5 Green completed.

However, I also recognized an alternate count, which is what caused me to leave half a position off the table. This count sees my exit @ 8336 as the end of Wave 3 Orange, with a potential 4th Wave Orange up, and a Wave 5 Orange down.

This Count Sees:

Wave 3 Orange as a few pips shy of 200% x Wave 1 Orange.

and

Wave 3 Red as a cpl of pips longer than 261.8% the length of Wave 1 Red.

Wave 5 Red as an Ending Diagonal and 200% the length of Wave 1 Red.

Wave 5 Red as 0.786 the Length of Wave 3 Red.

So all in all very good Fib ratios within this count.

Here it is on a 5 min:

So to sum it up, I'm up 51 Pips on half my position and I'll be keeping an eye on the rest of the position however my stop is moved to 8373 - which is just a cpl of pips beyond the beginning territory of Wave 1 Orange. that meant I have a guranteed 14 pips locked in my second half.

But I will be looking between 8322 and 8302as a final take profit. 8322 is where Wave 5 green = 0.618 the length of wave 3 Green, and I've got a fib cluster @ 8302.

Update:

Wave 4 Orange retrace to the 4th Wave of a lesser degree (Red) and then shot down to the target Range of 8322 - 8302. It actually bottomed out @ 8311. but I wasn't around to close the trade. Ended up closing out at the same price as the first position 2 8337.

Went Long Gold @ 1192, got Stopped, then went Short

2010-07-25T23:58:00.003-04:00

Well yesterday I went Long on Gold @ 1192, with a tgt @ 1220, and a stop @ 1180. I was stopped out quickly, and lost a cpl % in the acct. No Biggie.

The count I was using was anticipating a rise in gold based on a C wave of a larger degree correction. Heres the count I was using:

Today, though Gold looked a lot more heavy, and I decided to enter a short trade based on an alternate count I was using. The entry could have been a bit better, but nonetheless the RRR is pretty intense as this will be a longer term trade. which I will be looking to add to during appropriate corrective rallies. The details are:

Entry: 2 position Short @ $1177.18
Stop: $1186 - I figured if the count is correct, we are carving out a Wave 3 Orange down, and Price shouldn't move into Wave 1 Orange territory once wave 4 starts to correct.
Tgt: Open, but I've highlighted these areas
1 - 1087.29 - 161.8% X Wave 1 Purple
2 - 1057.52 - 200% X Wave1 Purple
3 - 1043.80 - Previous Wave 4 low. Suposed to be great support as per EWI
4 - 1009.36 - 261% X Wave 1 Purple

As you can see from the pic the tgt range is very large, so once I get a 4th wave correction, I'll be in a better position to calculate a finaly tgt.

"Rule number one is, don't sweat the small stuff. Rule number two is, it's all small stuff." Robert Eliot

2010-07-23T22:15:00.000-04:00

Ok so I got myself into a very sticky situation which I'm not particularly proud of, especially after the devastating loss I had a month or so ago. I was short A/J and had some decent profits on it, but with-in the last 2 days it rallied against me and my invisible stops hard. Ultimately I do believe that the larger bear market will continue and prices will continue to drop, however the question is when?

So I cut a cpl of smaller positions, because I was stacked in this trade looking to make about 350% like I did in May, and left my larger losses on the table. I then realized that Todd Gordon was going to go Long A/U and decided to HEDGE the position by going long A/U @ market which last traded @ 8850.

So I will follow Todd's SOTD trade as he planned it with a tgt of 9100, and a stop of 8850.

*** Todd's Aussie Count to follow ***

HOWEVER - I'm still looking for this turn around point bc I will want to add to my A/J trade as the next leg down should be a third of a third, which could technically begin any time now.

What I'm looking for:

S&P 500 - I've came up with a resistance range between 1111.16 - 1119.18

1111.16 - Wave C green will be .618 % the length of Wave A green (of 2 Purple) - This info was from the July 23rd E.W.I. Short Term Update.

1113 - 200 DSMA - Pointed out through Todd Gordon's July 23rd SOTD.

1115 - Previous resistance line I had on my chart.

1116.88 - Wave 5 Orange (within Wave C Green) will be equal to 1.618 the length of Wave 1 Orange

1119.18 - Wave 5 Orange will be Equal to Wave3 Orange. And Since Wave 1 is slightly longer than wave 3 (32.08 vs. 31.30), Wave 5 must end before this level for the count to remain valid.

Volume dropped from 1.14 Billion Shares traded, vs 1.16 Billion yesterday, and to have a higher close on lower volume in a bearish symbol. also EWI pointed out that since May, the market has been making swing turns every 8-9 days. The next day falling on monday the 26th. The 26th is also a period of the full moon phase, which typically has strong market shifts associated with it. I'm not an expert on financial astrology, but I have been paying attention to it over the past cpl of months from www.stocksforliving.com, so that may be another indicator that a swing is around the corner.

Gold - Potential resistance between $1214.46 - $1232.73

$1214.46 - 38% Retracement of Wave 1 Green.

$1217.23 - 4th wave of lesser degree (orange) and Wave C Red will be 161.8 X Wave A red

$1223.73 - 50% Retracement of Wave 1 Green.

Oil -Between $82.67 - $86.23

$82.67 - Common tgt for Oil as per EWI

$85 - Resistance as per Todd Gordon

$86.23 - Resistance as per EWI - Where Wave Y = Wave W

Euro and Dollar Index

Under this new wave count, Euro could be making a higher high with Resistance between 1.3093 and 1.3240 - As Per EWI

1.3093 - 4th wave of lesser degree Wave 4 purple

1.3107 - Wave C Blue = 1.618 Length of Wave A Blue

1.3105 - Wave 5 Purple = 0.618 Length of Wave 3 Purple

1.3240 - Wave 5 Purple = Wave 3 Green so Price should stay uinder here to keep count valid as Wave 1 is longer than wave 3

As previously mentioned, Price could have technically maxed out as early as today, and we could be beginning our decent to lower levels at any time, so much attention will be required the first few days of next week.

Back after a cpl of months...

2010-07-23T14:29:00.001-04:00

After a 2 month hiatus, it feels good say I'm back and will continue to document trades on the blog. a lot has happened in the interim: (real) work, personal stuff, and trading has been eating away at my time and I was simply unable to post trades that I took. Some were really good including a +700 pip gain on A/J, and some were bad like a - 400 pip loss that I let spiral out of control RIGHT after the huge gain...lol its funny when that happens bc you read about it in 'Market Wizards' all the time, and think to yourself 'How could anyone do such a thing?'....but then when it happens to you, its a different story.

Anyways...I still have a lot of work to do trading-wise, and I will continue to document my progress. I'm very happy to say that I've build a fairly comfortable financial cushion allowing me to trade full time, and devote all my resources to trading - SICK!

I'm currently working on bringing up my Elliott Wave. I feel like I have a good grasp on it, but I still have a lot to learn. I'm good with the basic rules, but coming up with alternative counts can be tricky - especially if a main count is invalidated. So I've subscribed to ElliottWave.com's financial forecast, and ElliotWaveForex.com's daily Euro and Gbp/Usd subscriptions. Although I still make my own counts, especially if either service feels off, or is perhaps forcing a count.

I'm reading Dynamic Trading by Robert Minor at the Moment, and think its a fantastic book - its super insightful and actually makes trading seem easy. Its combines Elliott Wave, Gann, Price and Time projections along with pattern recognition. It's 500 pages, so Hopefully I'll be done sometime in Q3. After only 3 chapters I can see why its called a 'Bible of Trading'.
I've also begun reading Conquer the Crash by Robert Pretcher. I'm on a timeline to read that bc a friend lent it to me, and I'd hate to tie it up forever. That too is 400+ pages, and apparently can be very intense and academic at times. I figured since I'm a student of Elliott Wave and since there is a lot of ppl throwing the 'Deflation' word around, it would be a wise move to read the book and get a little enlightened on the subject.

For now I guess that's all, its good to be back in a position where I can devote most of my time to trading and documenting my progress as I progress.

Steady as she goes...

2010-05-20T17:37:00.000-04:00

Heres the pic of the A/J trade I took on Monday, its pretty much my biggest trade yest in terms of Pips and Profit. I scaled in every 100 or so pips as well, compounding my reward while keeping my risk minimal. Initially I was very frustrated with ym entry, but now am more focused on adding positions to the trade and timming the exit.

Should the S&P continue to fall this will be a very lucruative trade, so I will give it room to breath, even though that means I may have to put up with a pullback or two.

The yellow boxes are my entries and the blue boxes are possable areas that I'd like to add to the position. If the count is correct, Wave 3 green should be done, and we should be experiencing a Wave 4 green correection.

Note To Self...

2010-05-18T16:39:00.000-04:00

Basically we saw Price reach the 50% Fib retracement and we hesitated before taking the trade on the A/J. Today's lesson is don't get greedy with entries.

We missed the first limit order we set on Sunday night @ 81.70 bc we cancelled it, mainly out of doubt. And then the second one got missed by 6 pips as price came upto 81.64.

I think maybe what happened was that after I missed my Ideal entries, I tried to make the second attempt as perfect as possible. Although we still entered the trade, with a few positions and its going quite well, it was rather sloppy, and could have been a lot smoother.

Possible Cable Short Setting Up Also

2010-05-09T16:23:00.004-04:00

***** After the counts and a new limit set*****

Looking to Add to Cable Short. Will have a limit order set @ 1.4770, Stop @ 1.4830, and an open take profit heading to at least 1.4555.

*******A cpl of new counts*******

A couple of bearish counts I had from before...

*********************

***** Filled*****

Entry - 1.5030
Stop - 1.5130
Tgt - 1.4500

Aproxx 1-5 RRR

Asia started off very volatile and Euro gapped up almost 200 pips, I saw that cable was also on the verge of pullback as expected, but what I didn't expect was the degree of the pullback.

I had an original entry at 1.4970, which was the 161.8 APP of Wave A Orange. But the market looked like it wanted to go higher based on the Daily candle (see daily chart below) and that the CCI was turning around in the Bullish direction. So I set a limit order just shy of the 61.8 Retracement of the Entire Wave 3 Green @ 1.5030, with a stop @ 1.5130 which was the Wave 1 green Invalidation point for a Wave 4 Green. My first tgt was 1.4550 which was a 1-5 RRR, it was an even better set up then Euro but was stacked in Euro already and didn't want break my money mgmt rules...

I wasn't sure if price was going to hit my limit immediately, but I was already in the Euro short so figured time was on my side, also Cable is Cable - the thing moves...so either way I wouldn't have been surprised.

I was a bit nervous bc Dow Futures were over 300 pts higher, HUGE, but decided to go ahead with my research and gut feeling. Also these last couple of weeks was 'no holes barred' in terms of traditional guidlines, (gold was rising with stocks, gold was rising with the Dollar, Dollar and stocks rising together, gold was rising with falling stocks, etc) so anything was possible.

Either way, we got in, Monday morning, around 8:45 est, before New York Open.

**** Before the Fill ****

I was watching Cable set up at the same time Euro was and was thrown off by the wave count, I had a couple of different ones and wasn't sure which one was the right one. After looking at both E.W.'s Apr 09/2010 S.T.U. and Lara's weekend Forexinfo.us update, I morphed the two to make something work that I was really comfortable with.

Below are the images of the wave count I chose and the pullback range that I was expecting.

Hopefully we'll catch a nice short opportunity this week + 400 & +400 Pips

2010-05-08T21:45:00.007-04:00

Update to follow...

**** A couple of different Bearish Alternatives ****

Blogger is actually really shitty for positioning pics, but this will have to do, plus its late, and I want to get up early to check out tmrw mornings market action. Both counts are bearish with the first one calling for a larger move down after a pullback first.

The alternate is that wave 5 is over right now and we begin to go bullish, but with the way the Dow and the S+P are setting up for larger scale sell offs, (which I will be playing via the A/J) and with Gold at an all time high with no sign of stopping, it seems like this Euro may have a bit more downside potential.

********************************************

**** Filled ****

So we got filled at the higher entry , price moved against up for a bit and then went screaming down. I'm looking to get 1-4 RRR on the first position, and then will let the rest ride based on the unfolding wave structure.

I got filled at 1.3020 and 1.3030. I Moved the limit up after price almost hit my 1.2970 entry as I was setting the limit. I felt I could get a better price. as you can see from the pics below, price DID move higher, into the 61.8 retracement area.

Entry: Stop:
1 - 1.3020 1.3130 - Wave 1 Green Invalidation point
2 - 1.3030

Tgt:
1 - 1.2555
2 - Open

**** The Set Up Before the Fill ****

I was watching this one for all of last week, every since the loss on Sunday night/Monday. Basically there was two views I could have taken, the first that Primary degree 1 wasn't complete as per E.W. and Todd Gordon. This view stated that there are 5, 9, 13, etc (+4) waves in the impulse move, and that we have completed 7, so were looking for an 8th and a 9th to cap of the First wave. As this Sundays open was a very volatile upwards movement, I figured we were in the 8th wave and lookig to get into the 9th when it was ready to turn around. Actually I'll try to post a pic of the 8-9 waves once I get a second.

The second was that Primary Degree wave 1 had finished, Primary Degree Wave 2 had finished and we were halfway into Primary Degree wave 3 - I did NOT like this view bc it didn't look right on the charts - it seemed a bit too 'forced'.

As for the set up, I was looking for the Wave 8 retracement. At first I wanted to set my limit at the 161.8 APP of Green Wave A @ 1.2970. I liked this bc Wave 4 Purple was looking like a nice 5-3-5 ABC correction + 1.2970 was smack in the middle of the 50-61.8 % Fib retracements of the Wave 3 Purple Swing.

But like the cable, this thing was screaming upwards, so I decided to move the entry 20 and 10 pips less then the 61.8 Fib retracement of the Wave 3 purple swing to ensure a better RRR. Also after looking at the daily, I realized the 61.8% Retracement lined up very nicely with the double descending channels on the daily - Which are the red lines on the charts below. Lastly price had been away from the 21 EMA for quite a bit, and it seemed like it was time to make a swing back up towards it.

******************************************************************************

Alternate Count that was invalidated due to Triangle Rule being breached - Wave 4 blue had the purple E surpass the Purple C. The count we're working with now is the the one above where wave 4 is a double 3 correction. It fits and looks a lot smoother.

Thought I'd post these for future reference of what NOT to do.

Long @ 1.3200 - (230) Pips

2010-05-03T23:36:00.004-04:00

Well this one caught me off guard big time. I don't think I've ever had a trade go against me 100+ pips quicker than this one. Euro quickly took out my stops, and proceeded to blast through the 1.3000 Psych level falling hard all the way down to 1.2518.

I took the rest of the week off to asses the market, and although I wanted to jump in, I couldn't find a safe entry with a good RRR bc I didn't know where this thing was going to bottom out.

**** Stopped Out****

Entry                      Stop              Tgt
1 - 1.3220             1 - 1.3090      1 - 1.3500
2 - 1.3190                                   2 - Open

We should be done a Green wave 2 right now, and going into a Green wave 3, if this is the case we have a potentially great set up bc our RRR is 1 - 3, and bc we're trading a wave 3, it should be over relatively quickly.

I'll post my chart up tmrw bc I'm not at my regular trading computer but this chart is the just of it...

Bc wave 1 green was 228 pips and we know wave 3's like to be between 1.618 - 2.618 the length of wave 1's, a conservative target is 369 pips from the end of Wave 2/Start of Wave 3 (228 * 1.618).

So if wave 2 end at 1.3153, wave 3 should end somewhere around 1.3500.

As for the stop, its @ 1.3110, our ivalidation point of this whole count, but I do like to give my trades more room to bc even if its a wrong count, I still may be able to get out at a better price if price turns around after invalidatiing the count, also I've seen counts become invalidated by 0.02 pips before resuming in the previous direction.

Note: Pls ignore all letters and numbers abouve except the Green 1 and 2 waves with the fib on top.

A Quick 50...

2010-04-30T20:38:00.000-04:00

Update to follow, but the buffer is working great and we took a full position on a sweet 50pips w/ a 1-2 RRR

Picking a bottom and building a buffer...

2010-04-29T01:03:00.002-04:00

Again, update will follow, this one is messy and need some good explaining...I'm long at 1.3150, with a super small position, and looking to hold it for the long haul. My stop is 1.3045, and I'm expecting this Wave C Blue to end somewhere around 1.3800. ATM my tgt is open though.

My intention is to use the profits from that position to act as a Risk - to - Reward buffer on the upcoming Euro longs that I plan on taking if the displayed count is correct. I should be able to place bigger bets against the built up buffer from these initial longs w/o worrying about using a high risk % per trade.

Analysis on why I chose to go long while the rest of the world was crying about Greece, Portugal and Spain to follow...

Sweet Euro Short - update to follow + 185 pips w/ 1-3.5 RRR

2010-04-27T17:38:00.001-04:00

Getting ready to short S&P???

2010-04-13T16:51:00.004-04:00

Keep Your Money in Cash Says Bob Prechter @ Yahoo! Video

Shorting Cable - Updated

2010-04-13T01:26:00.004-04:00

****Update****

Baciscally I got stopped out of my second unit that I added @ 154.60 @ 155.15. I added another unit roughly at the same price and closed that one with a 30 pip loss as well, so I was down about 50-60 pips on this trade AND I moved my stop back on my initial position...yes I MOVED MY STOP BACK...a loss would have hurt big time.

So after a cpl of nights of rough sleep I still believed in the technicals and added to the existing position at 1.5465. I saw the USDX bottoming short term and the Euro about to go bearish, so I stuck to my guns.

I was showing a small profit on Friday after the whole Golman Sachs issue and my Cad trade was doing really well, so I decided to hold over over the weekend, and this trade is really turning around on me now.

The First position just closed out for a profit of 92 pips, as I had an entry of 1.5352 and closed out @ 1.5260:

- 38% Fib retracement of upward corrective swing
- 100 SMA on 4 hr chart

2nd Position:

I'm expecting a pullback before it continues down to the next tgt, and its killing me to leave this thing open after the first couple of hits that I've taken, but I'm already in the black on this trade and my Cad trade is amazing right now so I'll leave it. Also I'm not really a fundamental guy, but this Goldman news is rocking the globe as the EU is also initiating its own probe + Dow and S&P futures are currently in the Red as per Bloomberg, so we may get another equity sell off for Monday's open.

Both trades with multiple positions and the two losses have yielded me currently 720 pips, lets hope it continues...

Trade Adjustment:
Stop - 1.5450
Tgt - 1.5160

**********

Entry @ 1.5355
Stop @ 1.5505
1st tgt @ 1.5160
2nd tgt open

Reasons for short:
- Gartley 222 partern w/ convergence @ 78% XA and 100% CD
- Possible Wave 4 ABC correction complete. Even if not complete, bearish implications identified from potential formation of Wave D or 5.
- Double Divergence from stochs and CCI (which isn't evident on Euro)
- Stochs turning out of OB and CCi showing bearish reversal
- Shooting star / Evening star candle stick pattern (where Gartley convergence is)
- USDX has a very long daily tail to the south side - indicating the bears couldn't hold it down today - making the candle overall bullish
Edit: I've seen 2 different USDX candles, based on different feeds? hours? I don't know, but the one in the pic is different from the one described above, however both are bullish.
- USDX forming a triangle pattern on the 60min charts

Basically I do believe in USDX strength over the next little while although it may be short lived. I'm trying to stick to Euro, however when comparing the Euro set up to Sterling, Euro was lacking conviction. Also tmrw is the Greek bond sell off, and after reading some news comments about Germany still not totally impressed with pledging aid, fundamentally Euro seems more like a gamble at this point.

Euro Analysis 01 April 2010

2010-04-01T10:42:00.000-04:00

Heres the 60m Euro chart comming into the NY trading session.

Again mixed signals dictate, however I have initiated a small trade based on the Euro session's price action:

Seems like price has made a W.2green.3Purp. following reasons include:
Ratios between abc orange of W:2 green are:
a-b: 79% (Fib 78)
b-c: 56.8% (Fib 50-61.8)

Price came right in between the 50-61.8 Fib retracement of W.c green.2 pur - W.1 green.3 purp?
Lastly as price was making lower lows, stochs and CCI were making higher lows and were both pointing bullish.

Once the price hits 136.70 which is the 100% APP of w:1 green, I'll be looking to move stops to break even.

On the 4 hr charts we see price showing some type of bullish flag formation, with stochs showing divergence and CCI pointing bullish.

Daily chart price action is showing a sloppy reverse triangle, with stochs in o/b (which is where new trends like to start) and CCI pointing bullish. We may get sidways movement or perhaps the continuation of a new bullish trend.

Euro Trade Break Down - Missed

2010-04-01T10:13:00.003-04:00

In retrospect what we see over here is actually a great trade set up for the following reasons:

After price made a W:5.1, it came lower to make a W:c.2 which perfectly hit the time and price target (blue shaded area)
A long could have been initiated at the Blue target, with a take profit near W:5.1's high. based on again, price hitting the blue target, stochs making a bullish reversal and showing slight divergence, along with CCI making a lower high, showing divergence, and also making a higher low.

The stop would have been outside the bluse shaded tgt area, either a 161 ext ret. of waves A-B.

35 pip rsik for 130 pip reward. Not bad.

Euro March 31, 2010

2010-03-31T13:02:00.001-04:00

Todays Euro analysis is looking a bit more clearer. We may be getting a flat corrective structure with another swing down to 134.00 - ish. Either way it'll be sideways and choppy for a day or so. Once again I'm standing aside for the time being. The daily stochs are in O/B territory, as is the hourly. So I'm looing to possible long after a pullback.

Heres the updated chart, the count will probably change by tonight so I'll be looking to update again sometime today.

Notice though how the Time and Price projection target got hit perfectectly based on the Mar25- Mar30th rally before shooting back up for a double top? Lets see if the daily can play out with the same accuracy.

Ok now for the daily, I thought I'd point out some interesting correlations over here. First off the MACD which gives off slow signals is showing a powerful divergence, and has been doing so for a few days now - signaling that the trend may be tiring and comming to an end.

The stochs are hitting O/B and are hitting the trendline resistance that I've showed on the one hr CCI. Stochs give faster crossover signals, and it may be possible that they are ready to come out of overbought as the 60 chart is doing, while the Euro continues its sideways choppy movement. Should this be the case we can expect the Euro to create Flat corrections, with stochs comming out of O/B, only to have them pull a bullish reversal (which should also be evident on the 60m) while price is breaking out of the Elliotts Channeling technique trendline.

Lastly, CCI is also showing 2 things with the red trendlines I've draw. The lower trendline is showing a clear divergence, just as the MACD. However the second, higher trendline is showing resistance just like the stochs and the CCI on the 60 min. So, not to beat a dead horse over here, but it is quite possible to have the CCI line bounce around both trendlines, while price continues its choppy movement over the next day or two, and then have a breakout...probably areound NFP Friday, which would also be super low liquidity due to Easter holiday...

Sticky Situation

2010-03-29T11:01:00.005-04:00

I updated the count as per my E.W. subscription newsletter @ forexinfo.us. I'm not

crazy about the new colors, but for the time being it makes following Lara a lot easier. For anyone wanting to learn E.W. on the Euro and the Cable she does a really good job and is super clear in her analysis.

Notice how stochs came out of o/b and the CCI reversed off of the trendline in tandem...

Looks like we might be trading into a potential wave 3, we'll see what happens in a bit, if this is the case, then dow theory kicks in, and this could also be a higher low...if thats the case, this wave 3 blue should start to move the Euro up.

I'm getting mixed signals though. 60M and daily charts look like they want to pull a bearish reversal as per stochs and cci, however the weekly stochs are pointing to higher moves, and this whole rally from the 25th - 30th of march violated the last count which was supposed to be a longer fifth wave continuation down.

Its quit possible that price will move sideways a bit more, hitting out blue price and time target, make a higher low and then begin to move up in a wave 3/C. Price can also surpass our blue price and time target, and still be a valid wave 2/B. As long as the Mar 25 low isn't taken out we're still good for a nice long after.

I was looking to long at 1.3400 and 133.70, however with stochs approaching o/b, and hitting resistance with cci, the conviction isn't there. waiting on the sidelines for now.

This is the daily chart for March 30th. Look at the possible resistance Stochs and CCI are running into...

Typical time and price target for a Wave5Blue of larger degree Wvae1White...

Seems to be the valid count....

This count became invalidated as the potential W4 blue traded into the territory of W1 by a pip or 2.

Filled on one, missed the 2nd by 4 pips! - Stopped out!

2010-03-25T14:32:00.003-04:00

***Stopped out!***

We got stopped out of 2 of our 3 positions Sunday evening. I wasn't in front of my computer, had I been I would have probably moved the stop back a bit and tried to get out at a better price. Stops were at 1.3480, with a high of just over 1.35. I closed out the last position manually bc I didn't feel good about the continuing trend after that point. Even now, I'm not 100% certain about where price will go, looking to stand aside and watch for a day or 2 bc by the looks of it, price may move either way, and I don't feel like babysitting a trade should I put it on.

*** UPDATE - March 27,2010***

As per my Twitter update a few hrs ago, I actually got filled on all three limit orders. Lets hope now that what we're in is actually a wave 4 up before we get to ride the W5 down that we've been waiting for, Tgts are within 1.3050 - 1.2900. However we'll see how Monday and Tuesday play out to give us a better picture. Then looking to ride Green correction waves up for the next cpl of weeks.

I've been super busy with exams again, and haven't been at my main trading terminal, so once I get back and settled I'll look to post some updated pics

***

Got filled on the first order, but missed the second by 4 pips!!! Brutal! This morning once I got filled I should have re-evaluated wave 5 as a 5 and not automatically thought of it as an extended b. A 2.618 APP of wave 1 would have confirmed the NEW wave five as it should have been, and I then should have re-set my 38% fib to accomodate the lower W 5. Anyways...we're up around 50 pips right now.

On second thought...lets now get greedy here ;) photo of the tragedy to follow...

Work In Progress - Finally Got a Setup!

2010-03-22T23:38:00.004-04:00

Ok I have to make this quick but here is the set up:

The counts were changed slightly and are a lot easier on the eyes. Although I missed the massive push down yesterday, I'm hoping to catch the rest of this larger degree wave 3 of 5. To be totally honest, I wanted to enter on the Bearish tweezer tops(W.2 white), but I"m not used to taking candle signals off the 60Min chart, so the conviction just wasn't there, and I had a lot of fundamental noise buzzing in the back of my head, especially with the S&P at new highs...usually ppl short at new highs and that would have added conviction to this Euro short, but with the market lately the exception has become the new rule, so I backed off.

Price is currently in a wave 4 correction. Now since wave 2 looked like a simple A-B-C deep correction, wave 4 may be a shallow complex correction which is more 'range bound' with shallower retracements. If this is the case price typically moves upto the 38% retracement of wave 3...or is it waves 1-3? I can't remember right now bc its late and I don't have my book in front of me, but I'm lucky b/c both waves 1 and 2 have the same height making this distinction irrelevant at the moment.

I've placed a fib from the wave 1 and 2 extremes (seen as bearish tweezer tops) and have placed limit sell orders at the 23% and shaded the 38% to get a fill. If the count is correct, prices rarely retrace past the 50%, so my stop is around the 61.8% which also coincides with a S+R level.

Entry 1 - 1.3365

Entry 2 - 1.3990

Stop - 1.3460

Tgt - Open, but I will try to play this one as long as I can and may consider scaling in on corrections...1 Mil @ a time....

MESSY chart- Great Set-up! - Going Long E/J

2010-03-21T23:55:00.004-04:00

Heres what I"m seeing

- Bullish Gartley, with 2 possible D convergence points based on a smaller degree '2' as 'X'
- Market is at one convergence point right now (86% & 138%, and I set a second limit order at the second convergence point (100% and 161.8) (both with stops 50pips away from each entry, both are slightly beyond X)
- The lower convergence point lines up with a 161% External retracement of wave 3-to-4, which is the typical target for the Wave 5 of larger degree 3/C, needed to complete the down leg @ 121.85.
- Tgts for both X entries are at their respective 38% retracements of the C-D leg / 15/ wave structure

The blue box is actually mislabelled, its supposed to say W.4/D target and that again is based on the 38-61.8 Reracements of C-D/1-5 of larger degree 2-3. The 3 horizontal lines are the Fib retracements and the 3 vertical lines are the Fib TIME projections from W1.5 of the smaller degree (1.27-1.61%).

***All assumptions are based on on the current 'X'/W5 - if the lower target is hit, the Price levels will come a bit lower and the time projections will be a bit further away.***

The take profits are before the blue box (as per the Gartley targets) and we will be looking to sell short at the blue boxes (I have one limit @ 123.5 already) - However these will be adjusted within the next day or so depending on market movement. I worked out the RRR's and they're both 1-2, so they're within our $MGMT guidlines. I also just noticed how thats where the moving averages should act as resistance if tested...

Heres the chart:

Euro is giving us a similar set up, however the Gartley reversal pattern and fib clustering just isn't there, so I will be looking for that to correct upward and short on what I expect to be another bearish impulse wave.

Lets hope these continue to work. I did have a cpl of great trades last week which I just didn't get around to posting, but were based on E.W. and find the Time Projections really fascinating...Wow

Shorting E/J and Going Long on CAD

2010-03-09T00:21:00.000-05:00

As mentioned in the previous post I shorted the E/J yesterday, had the market go against me a bunch of pips, got out at break even, and after I felt more confident in the move I entered again at the same price that I entered the first time! lol....
Again this violates one of the rules that I mentioned in the previous post - but my excuse is a mental breakdown of reasoning and decision making abilities from 'over study' - a condition I never knew existed, that is a negative correlation between the amount of studying and exam performance....well lets just hope I get good at this stuff really soon so I won't have to worry about exams anymore!!!

Anyways back to the trade...

After re-entering 2 positions at the same price @ 132.58, I quickly gained 50 pips, and then I scaled in with another smaller position @ 132.12. I haven't moved my stop yet, but now is a perfect time to do that!
So on 2 positions I've gotten a gain of + 95 pips and on the third I have + 49.7.

I liked that this trade was in a descending channel, hitting the top of the channel with stochs overbought. Picture perfect! also I'm really stepping up my Elliott Wave education, and have learned that price shouldn't retrace past the 78.8 % level of the swing id'd in the picture ( I should have pointed it out better, but oh well) which was equivalent to 124.03. After I woke up today and saw that price went as high as 123.89, and started to reverse, thats when I felt confident enough to throw down the trade.

The CAD trade was entered a bit later and I think its still a good trade, I've only got 2 positions on this one, but may put one more if I can get out of Aussie at break even on one position - and reason is that I think I can catch a larger swing of this Cad trade that I will be able to with the current Aussie position(s). If this CAD starts to take off while Aussie gets to break even, I'll simply hang on to all the Aussie positions.

This CAD is basically bottoming out at the bottom of a huge daily range, and is also being oversold. I'll try to ride it out for + 200 pips (around 1.0505) and then let the rest ride into 1.0600's. Should it go against us, it has a very tight stop, which will be under the lowest of the 3 previous lows - somewhere around 1.0200. Again these are daily plays so they may last a few days if not longer...

Note on Elliott Wave - I've started studying it in greater detail. I'm actually stepping up my whole technical analysis education. I'm currently reading 'Dynamic Trading' by Robert Minor, and will follow that up with "High probability trading strategies' also by Robert Minor, the trading bible 'Technical Analysis of Stock Trends' by Edwards and Magee, 'The Elliott Wave Principle' - Robert Pretcher - its going to be a long summer!
Now I know I have enough education to trade successfully bc I have an amazing mentor who taught me everything I need to know, and I have been able to bang out successful trades after her training but this is serving as more of a re-enforcer, and perhaps I'll be able to add a few new tools to the arsenal.
Also I can say that I'm entering these trades a lot more confidently: particularly to how price should be contained within certain moves and what its limit is before the count is invalidated, and potential profit tgts. Lastly, both Roberts won trading championships (117% and 444.4% respectively), and were both named Trading Guru's of the year for certain years....as Tony Robbins says, someone has already done what you want to do, you just have to find them and learn from them!

Took a trade on the Eur/Gbp and up +77 pips, also Took one on Aussie -7 Pips

2010-03-05T20:49:00.004-05:00

Update to follow hopefully on Sunday...But still in these trades, Aussie might have to cut as soon as mkts open on Sunday...

Will hold the Aussie trade for the time being,

Also looking to Long Cad and Short E/J - however still need a little while to be certain - gotta love the dailies...

***Update***

Closed out the E/G short with a tiny 8-10 pip profit. It really was a counter trend trade that I thought had a bit more momentum to it, but I figured better be safe than sorry.

Still hanging onto that Aussie, currently -25 pips, but still have hope. I entered it on a Friday afternoon, and it was an Ashraf call which broke two of my newer rules: 1) No trading on Friday afternoons or Sunday evenings, and 2) No more taking other ppls calls or picks!. Had I waited I could have gotten in at a better price and have some more margin to play with for the Cad and E/J trades that I entered today as well.... The tuition for the School of Hard Knocks is definetly not cheap!

I'm slacking a bit in terms of the pic postings, but that does take a lot of time, and I am very busy at the moment. I'll try to post them eventually though

Upcoming Setups!

2010-02-25T00:39:00.000-05:00

Ok well I've been watching these lines in the background for a little whle and it looks like we might get a play out of them in the next cpl of days. Heres the game plan for the time being.

Eur/Jpy

As per the Elliott Wave guidelines for an ascending wedge in a Bear Market, we can clearly see 5 distinct points and a breakout. The kicker is that this breakout is happening at significant support, and price showing slight divergence on the 4 hr charts (the dailies have just reached oversold). So now its time to wait and watch...

If I get a retest of 121.50, I'm short, or if price consolidates and forms some type of patter at its current level, I'll watch for a Bearish breakout and short around 120.50. First tgt is 118.50 - 118.00 and the rest we'll leave open as this can open the door for a larger downward move.

Second chart to watch, is the Gbp/Jpy - Now this one looks extra juicy bc if it breaks it should fall hard...
Again the 4 hr is showing divergence and the daily is falling into oversold, so I"m looking for a retest.
If I can get a retest of 138.20 or 139.50-140.00 I'd be considering a nice short, and will probably let this ride down to 134.50 ish...

If I had to choose between the 2, I would probably take this one, bc the Euro seems so be stuck at solid support while the Cable keeps making lower lows. E/G worthless right now as its stuck in a range. But if I pay them it will be from the swing trader perspective so I will be looking for solid signals on the larger timeframes, and a lot can change from now until then.

Lets see what happens...

On a side note...

2010-02-23T13:47:00.001-05:00

I just love how this pair can respect S+R in ranges and come crashing down. I've noticed this twice in the past month, and figured I'd document it this time.

E/J Daily

Price retesting broken Support, now turned resistance, while making a type of bearish flag/wedge pattern (maybe???), which making an Evening start formation, and stochs crossing out of overbought.

Entry would have been on the blue line, with the stop above the last high and tgt would have been at the bottom of the range. It worked out to a 1-2 RRR (trust me I've crunched the numbers ;)

On the 4 hr you can see a decent Head and Shoulders, with a solid breakthrough but again no retest.

While this could have been a money maker, the signals for entry on this trade were even more fuzzy than those of the Cad/Jpy. Bc the Eur/Usd is ugly as hell right now, and the USDX is also doing some type of weird consolidation dance...

As for upcoming trades, well we'll see what happens in the next day or two. EUR/USD is waiting to figure itself out, as is the USDX. And perhaps after the nice moves the JPY made, we might have to wait for a lower high of some sort on the Dailies to jump in on a short. Personally though I'm in no rush, and I enjoyed the slow market Sunday and yesterday as I've got one more exam this week to get out of the way...

A Day Late, A Buck Short...

2010-02-23T12:32:00.000-05:00

Ok so we got stopped out of last week's Cad/Jpy trade, and low and behold, last night, going into this morning it played out perfectly, even though it didn't have the clearest entry signals on the daily charts, theres a few things I'd like to comment on for the next time something like this presents itself. After dissecting this trade, and zooming down to the 4 hr, you can see some more evidence.

USD/JPY Chart

So as the JPY is moving against the USD, using this as a proxy, we can id which pairs are losing against the greenback and capitalize on larger moves.

Falling wedge, along with double Doji's lining up on S1 pivot, before the powerful breakout to the south. Price was also under the Daily Pivot and in this case actually under the 21 EMA, so this thing was in a great position to continue downward. Lastly this whole down move is a bounce off of the larger descending channel which can be clearly seen on the dailies.

Usd/Cad

On the daily you can see a Morning Star forming on significant support (1.0374).

Ok, and on the 4 hr you can see price making a higher low that the previous low, sooo that is a signal that price may continue upwards....HOWEVER, in my opinion that would have been a gamble on its own, and a valid retest would have been necessary - there was just no way of knowing price would shoot up like that after a bearish candle like that. Anyways price did re-test, and then shot up.

Cad/Jpy Chart:

Well we had 2 positions @ , and were stopped out at... on Friday. Sunday and Monday were write offs, but then as Tuesday rolled around in London, things got exciting:

On the 4 hr C/J chart you can see a symmetrical H+S pattern, with price being UNDER the daily pivot, and hovering around the 21 EMA - now if your going to take a short, that is where you want price to be, and vise versa for the long. Although I will short with price above the pivot and long with price below the pivot, those set ups aren't as favourable!

Now what was good about this head and shoulders was that the right shoulder was definitely lower than the left, but what it didn't do was retest the neckline after it broke through. Now price doesn't always retest, but again it is a more favourable trade when it does.

Lastly, I'd like to point out that that the target was hit bang on, and also lined up with the 200 sma - nice! and viola, there you have our CAD/JPY trade from last week! - Bitter Sweet I must say

Taking a step back...When in doubt, STAY OUT!

2010-02-20T15:13:00.000-05:00

K, lets take a lot at something I've observed over the past day. The charts should explain why I'm deciding to sit on the sidelines for the next few days...

S&P WEEKLY chart

Price hovering around the 50% retracement - could be a sticky range, and stochs are crossed and coming out of oversold - indicating a potential correction in the downmove, or that his whole downmove could be a correction in a larger up move (although I'm personally siding with the former)

USDX WEEKLY chart

This thing has been on a rampage over the past few weeks, and now we're seeing a doji, and a long legged doji - such candles indicate indecision, and after the rally that we've had perhaps its time for a break??

EURO WEEKLY chart

Bearish gartley played out, and price has come significantly lower that the 38% retracement of the C-D swing - which is where a lot of ppl set their first tgts., also there is double dojis after a pretty hard USD rally, and stochs crossing in oversold. Now I know that trends form with price continuing which oscillators such as stochs stuck in extremes, but the dojis are telling me it might be time for a break. Also if this is a wave 3, the correction to the fourth wave is super sloppy and hard to identify (as least to me since I'm not a E.W. expect by any means), so until price makes some new type of pattern or wave I can work with, I'm watching, observing and trying not to judge :)

So basically there's this week's analysis. No new trades at the moment, and although in a previous post I mentioned that price on the Euro and E/J were at significant levels, after taking a step back and looking at the larger picture, its made me reconsider. Also I really enjoy swing trading, I've enjoyed the highest returns when I've done so, and lately it seems that I've been in a trade everyday, and thats not right. So @ the same time I think a little breather, while the markets figure themselves out would be healthy both for my mind and my acct!

Position Intiation - Cad/Jpy and Aud/Jpy

2010-02-18T00:35:00.006-05:00

So I entered a cpl of positions over the past few hours and they're working out great.

Here they are

1. Cad/Jpy - Had my eye on this throughout most of the day and decided it was time to finally short it.

Entry - 87.09
1st tgt - 86.55
2nd tgt - 86.10
Stop - 87.63

Currently up 37 pips, and have moved the stop to break even creating a risk free trade.

***UPDATE***

1st tgt hit for approx 54 pips
Stopped out of second position.
Re-entry @ 86.03 with half the position size as the original entry and a tighter stop @ 87.43

2. Aud/Jpy - I said in the previous post I wasn't touching anything Aussie related, however after reading my Eur/Usd analysis I found that USD had been spanking Aussie just as hard as Euro, and when comparing both alternatives again the Jpy, Aussie looked better bc of tweezer top candles, and a better entry - where as Eur/Jpy already seemed to have started playing out to the downside, making me think I missed the best entry.

Entry - 81.82
tgt - 80.80
Stop - 82.50

Currently up 39 Pips, so I moved stop to break even for now. I know that 37-40 pips isn't much for these Jpy crosses, but if I get stopped out from now until tmrw morning I'll probably jump back in if the opportunity is still there. Also this one will only have one tgt as I entered only one position.

***UPDATE***

Won't be re-entering on this one. Bc Risk seems to be putting up a bit of a fight, and when it does this Aussie can quickly make up for any lost ground, and I'd like to protect my profits. So I guess you can consider not shorting the Aussie as an insurance. However the S&P and the Dow are both overbought and approaching 61.8 Fib retracements, so I'm betting this thing will turn around and the Cad/Jpy will resume its previous course.

Cable also seems to be breaking out of a bearish flag and possible retesting it on the 4 Hr, also the E/G is showing a bullish candle, so I'll keep my eyes on this as well and perhaps when risk aversion resumes I may be able to get a nice short with a super small position as well.

***UPDATE 2***

Cad/Jpy -After price was approaching my stop I decided to play this one out as a new trade. So I moved the stop back to the original stop of 88.05 and entered a new position at 87.44. Both positions will have a target of 86.55.

Reasoning was that risk seemed to be dissipating: S&P and Dow look to be forming doji's while stochs are in over bought and beginning to cross. S&P also seems to be making a dbl top just over its 50% retracement, while the Dow is capped at its 61.8% retracement.
Also 4 hr Cad/Jpy charts are beginning to show bearish divergence with stochs, and price is currently @ R1 Pivot and 61.8 % resistance. Usd/Cad is also resting a solid support, with stochs beginning to come out of oversold, and Usd/Jpy is also showing bearish divergence. If we get a turn around point, this will likely be it.

3rd position entered @ 87.70 Stop is the same as the others, and tgt is open, might goto 87.10 or try to run it down to 86.55...

Good Night!

***UPDATE # WHATEVER***

Ok so we got stopped out of this Cad/Jpy trade HARD. Not all that bad bc we still made some pips off of the first move, but these losses are really starting to get annoying! Anyways the good news is that price seems to be at some good levels for certain moves for next week on the dailies. specifically the E/U and E/J - they're both rallied pretty good today, and are beginning to look overbought, while the Eur/Gbp is looking to tire as well. Also I'll be looking for a lower high on the U/J and then might take a trade there.

I'll try to post setups for nextweek by the end of the weekend.

Cpl of Set ups to watch out for...

2010-02-17T16:03:00.001-05:00

I'm not going to post pics of charts right now bc I'm short on time, but heres the just of what I'm observing:

1) USD/JPY has been bullish over the past day, and so far the main trend is still down, so this could be a possible retracement. I'm watching to price to exhaust, make a lower high, and that will confirm the correction, allowing us to capitalize on JPY strength.

2) USD has been beating Euro all day, and USD looks to be poising itself to gain ground on CAD.

3) Once JPY begins to show signs of gaining on USD, I'll be looking to see if Euro/Jpy and Cad/Jpy present better shorting opportunities over the USD crosses, as the JPY should be the stronger 'Safe haven' currency.

*on a side note, I'm not shorting anything against Aussie as it seems to be one of the strongest currencies out there right now, and GBP also is in a downtrend over Euro, so shorting Euro over GBP seems to make the most sense.

Got Beat! Time to Re-Asses...

2010-02-16T16:57:00.001-05:00

Well the market tossed us around a little bit last night going into today's NY trading session. Took a big hit in Aussie - which ended up rallying pretty hard, and came out with a small profit of EUR/USD. It hurts when you can build up a case across different financial instruments, and have it go in the complete opposite direction. I guess bc of how sharply the Yen and USD rose, some type of pullback was inevitable, and I was off on the timing and magnitude of the move.

Out of the pairs traded, most have retraced to some type of significant resistance level, so it'll be interesting to see where price goes over the next couple of days. I'm still sticking to my bias, and simply viewing this as a correction until the weight of evidence of a trend change shows itself on the Dailies.

I'll be keeping an eye out for possible setups, mainly waiting to see the current momentum exhaust, and then look for clues taking the next trade with the trend. In the meanwhile though it seems to be a waiting game.

So much to write about - Analysis - Part 2 0f 2

2010-02-16T00:41:00.001-05:00

I am biased to NET LONG USD positions, and will only trade with the trend that agrees with my bias at the moment. Unless you've been living under a rock, you'll know that the 'Global Recovery' is running out of steam right now. The main 2 main factors I'm focusing on right now are the Euro Zone (Greece, and its Bail out plan - which isn't going so smoothly, along with financial worries about Portugal, Spain, Italy, Ireland and Belgium), and China's attempts to curb lending in order to avoid 'bubble' scenarios in growth.

Also looking at the technicals, you can clearly see the S&P 500 and the Dow have entered either a 'Corrective' wave, or perhaps the last bull move was simply a corrective wave in a larger Bear run? Either way, lower lows and lower highs = USD net longs...

As for actual trades, I'm in 2 right now in 2 separate accounts and thats where the problem lies. One account is having massive success on a Euro short from 1.3750, we were up 250 pips at one point last week, and the other is a loser that is mentally breaking me down (I haven't had a losing trade in 2 months, and then over the past 2-3 weeks I've had 2 big losers, and a third would be crushing). The hits shouldn't be so bad, but I've mismanaged this trade and if it doesn't turn around soon, I'll be forced to cut it. Its an Aussie short that I took as a pic from a pretty good FX analyst who's usually on top of his game, not this time...

Anyways why I'm hanging on to the winner and the loser are based on the fundamentals noted above, and the following technicals:

Everything lately has consolidated, indices and currencies alike, so based on what I'm observing it seems as though the USD will make a big move either bullish or bearish over the next day or so. And based on the fundamentals I'm going long...

Heres what I've been looking at:

Dow

S&P

USDX

Anyways I'll try to post the trade charts up in the next day or so, as well as possible set ups, bc everything is consolidating right now, - which usually means break outs are coming.

So much to write about - Part 1 0f 2

2010-02-15T23:14:00.000-05:00

Ok, So exams are done! and my cold is almost through running its irritatingly long course, and although I've got a lot of other stuff to do over the upcomming 'reading' week, I'm excited about having a bit of time to focus on the 'goods'...trading that is :)

Lots of stuff to talk about so here we go:

To start, I'll be looking to take less trades, and try to focus on the daily charts as much as possible. Reason being that I want to perfect a method that will allow me time away from the charts, if I'm going to do this full time, I don't want to begin to hate it, and that will require balance. 24 hrs markets can take up a lot of your time and distract you from other priorities, so I figure the less trades I take the more balance I'll be able to achieve. I'll have to work on developing the discipline to wait for the best trades only, and sitting on my hands when theres nothing else to do. I know I may have mentioned this before, but this isn't a static discipline, and sometimes it requires more focus than others. So again, this is on the top of my list of trading priorities.

Second is that I've been following Ashraf Laidi on Twitter, and as far as Currency Analysts go, he is definitely one of the best. A few ideas that I've learned from him is using crosses as proxies. Now I've done this before, however it was more about being at the right place at the right time. Where as now, I'd like to experiment incorporating this into my methodology so I can nail the best trades. Heres what he taught:

1 - During periods of Risk Aversion, Net Long the currencies such as USD and JPY (mainly bc they're considered safe-haven currencies, and have lowest interest rates). However, its not good enough to state 'Risk is ON or OFF'. What you want to do is determine which of the 'Safe-haven's' is the strongest, and be Net Long in that currency! So I'll be using the USD/JPY as a proxy. If risk is off, I'll be looking to this cross to help me figure which pair to short against.

2 - Use crosses to determine which currencies are stronger and weaker. Now this may be pretty simple, but when you tie it into the above principle, it can allow for some consistently dynamite trades.

I guess the best example is what happened to me this previous week. USD was spanking every currency on the board, and I wasn't sure which would be the better trade EUR/USD or AUS/USD. So after asking Ashraf, he told me to look at the cross and figure it out. As it turned out the USD was beating the Yen, and the AUD was spanking the EUR. The best trade therefore was the EUR/USD SHORT! And it was!

Now I know this is pretty straight forward, but by using the Safe Haven Proxy of USD/JPY, and crosses between the other majors to nail the stronger vs. weaker currencies, it will definitely help filter out the trades that have the highest potential to move. So this will be incorporated into my methodology for the time being and we'll see how it plays out - obviously it will take some getting used to, but I've seen it in action and pips get nailed by the truck load...so lets see how long it takes to get the hang of this :)

Thirdly, I will be meeting with Ed Seykota's Trading Tribe Toronto Satellite group tomorrow evening and am super excited about that. Hanging around and discussing mental trading hurdles sounds like it will be super beneficial to my results, especially when many of the other traders are professional hedge fund managers - should be good!

2010-01-29T23:09:00.000-05:00

To start, I'll only be trading 6 pairs for the next two weeks. I have mid-terms in school, and work is piling up, so I don't want to spend all my time in front of the charts. Secondly after the moves we've had the past couple of weeks, you only need to trade a few pairs to catch a lot of pips, and I'd rather milk as many pips from the least amount of pairs bc I'll be able to anticipate the moves better. Thirdly I had my first loss in a while this week, and it hurt - I don't like losing and will now focus more on the basics, and on less pairs until another solid track record is established.

Trades for next week

Aussie - was watching the 8850 mark for some type of bounce or pullback. Price broke right through w/o any hesitation - wow - anyways what we could potentially have is a large impulse move and if thats the case we need to wait for a correction. Should price correct and pullback or consolidate, I will watch for another break of .8857, should it break that level I'll initiate a swing trade, first aiming for the dbl bottom at 8725, and then trail the rest, while keeping a careful watch @ 8667as its the 23% fib level from the last weekly swing - should be powerful.

Euro - This one's on a rampage, totally getting destroyed. Its also very oversold in a downtrend, so I'm also waiting for some type of correction before it gives way again. Also i'm not sure about the wave counts with this one, so it may pullback (correct) a bit and then give us another wave before correcting, or correct (larger pull back/consolidation) and then give us another set of impulse moves

I'd like to see a move back to 1.40, but I'm not sure if Euros got that much immediate fight in it. Should a set up present itself I'll be watching tgts of 1.3825, 1.3750, and 1.3570.

Cable -

Aud/Jpy -

Eur/Gbp -

Cad or usd/jpy -

Just closed out a sloppy AUD/JPY trade for +150 pips

2010-01-21T11:21:00.000-05:00

Update to follow... great results this yr, hopefully they're sustainable

I should start a signal service ;) Euro + 109, Eur/Gbp +110, Gbp/Jpy + 215

2010-01-19T11:21:00.001-05:00

Well I'm glad to see 3 out of the 4 trades I called last week worked out - Eur/Usd, Eur/Gbp, and Gbp/Jpy (Cable surprised me by being so bullish bc although its in a smaller uptrend, its actually in a larger range).

The bad news is something unexpectedly happened over the last couple of days consuming a lot of time and mental energy ever since, so I wasn't able to take any of the trades (although I did demo the Euro). Fortunately the market is still looking good, and we might be able to catch a cpl more set ups by the end of the week.

Again as I've been busy, I've saved the screen shots but will post those and last week's trades up hopefully some time soon.

Upcoming set-ups for next week...

2010-01-15T13:18:00.001-05:00

Well it looks like the markets are moving nicely right now and I'd be getting ready to jump in a cpl of trades right now if it wasn't a Friday afternoon. But anyways here's what I'm looking at for next week. Again Charts to follow...

Euro - Made some nice moves over the Asian and Euro sessions, and is now looking like it needs a break. I'll be keeping an eye out for a pullback (wave 2) and then short on a s+r or channel bounce (new wave 3)

Cable - Looks like it broke through an intermediate trendline, and is now testing the support of a lower level of an ascending channel. I will be watching for a retest of either trendline, and then asses the bullish move for momentum - if I get enough reasons to short, I will.

Gbp/Jpy - This pair in in an ascending achannel and looks really good to long - if it wasn't a Friday, I'd be in the trade already. Entry 147.30, Stop 146.50 and tgt 149.50

Aussie - The uptrend is still intact, but its looking tired, and fundamentals look to be saying the same - Aussie had great employment numbers this week, but then they focuses on underutilization of infrastructure and resources (whatever that means), and China has upped the reserve requirements for its banks, which scared everyone bc its a liquidity tightening procedure, which can possible lead to less Australian imports.

I'l wait for a pullback, and then asses, if it makes a lower high than the double tops and retests the trendline break, I'll short. The weekly and daily charts are showing a sharp rejection at .9300, so for a short term 4 hr chart trade it may be do-able, daily and weekly charts could merely be showing a bounce/knock, so that type of trade would entail a bit more caution. Both Aussie negatives.

- Dusty...Feedback pls ;) -

Lastly,

Eur/Gbp - This one is looking great for a short right now based on significant S+R break and a retest. I would easily enter @ mkt 88.55, have a tight stop @ 88.90 or so, and have a first tgt @ .8750 - .8725

However it is Friday again, and I am reluctant to open any new positions right before the weekend.....its like starting to drink right at last call....the party's over, and all kinds of weird things can happen in the meantime..

Aud/Jpy Short +165 pips and Aussie Short +100 pips

2010-01-12T17:35:00.002-05:00

Updates to come...

Annnd We're Back!

2010-01-11T11:04:00.001-05:00

Well after a few weeks off for the Holidays, a very very very sick Chief Trading Officer, and a disappointing NFP on Friday, MTF is back to the grind.....Thats the good news!

The bad news is, this market hasn't given too many trading opportunities since, especially on the daily charts - I've found that most of the majors I'm trading have been rangebound or just continued they're moves, w/o any good point for re-enty (besides that Cad last week)....its kind of like an elementary school dance, with an empty dancefloor.....bulls on one side, bears on the other, either side waiting for the other to make the first move.

Anyways there are a few setups I've got my eye on:

Euro range breakout (which is looking like I'm missing as I'm writing this post)
Cable range trade or breakout
E/G - range breakout

Aussie + Kiwi - Re-Entry on a pullback, or wait for weight of evidence to present itself for a short
USD/JPY + AUD/JPY - Wait for a long re-entry, or for evidence to support a short

On a final note, we're starting out 2010 w/ a fresh model account, to document actual progress on a monthly basis. So trades will be recorded both by pips gained/lost, and account % change.

Good Luck and God Bless!

This Guy is my Hero!

2009-12-23T17:20:00.003-05:00

http://www.tudou.com/programs/view/XH5W4vffBbY

Dec1809 - Cable Range Breakout Short + 103 Pips

2009-12-18T15:27:00.001-05:00

I was anticipating this one for a cpl of days also, and it broke shortly after the Aussie Triangle break, crazy week its been.

After success on the this weeks other 3 trades, I figured the USD was either going to correct, or the bullish were going to carry on their stampeide. So I decided to cover all my angles by entering with multiple units at different prices.

The first one was market, the second and third were limits, and after a larger than anticipated correction, I figured price the path of least resistance was bearish on the pair so I entered a fouth and final position at market. you can see the entries on the 1 hr chart.

Also notice the Support turned resistance lined up with the breakout fib's 38% retracement level. This added to my conviction that price would head south.

First tgt was hit at the 1.6080 - the original breakout low, - 2 positions were closed out for +105 and +16 pips.

The remaining 2 units were closed @ mkt as its Friday afternoon, and I don't want to hold any positions over the weekend especially during the holidays,

Closed @ 1.6138 for +12 and - 14 pips, = -2 pips.

So we'll count this as +105 - 2 = +103 Pips

Dec1609 - Aussie Triangle broke +135 Pips

2009-12-16T15:14:00.012-05:00

Well the waiting and watching payed off last night as the Aussie Triangle broke. I shorted on a retest of the break and got a better price then if I had shorted at mkt.

Entry- 0.8995 + 0.9110
Stop - 0.9180
Tgt 1 -0.8860
Tgt 2 - 0.8800

Tgts are a bit wide, so I may tighten them up based on price movement over the next 24 hrs.

Edit: .8945 seems like decent support, if price breaks and retests successfully I will add to the position and tighten up the stops accordingly

*** UPDATE ***

I made some changes to the original plan, as I had 3 open positions, I closed out the first @ .8897, booking +113 pips (entry was @ .9010)

Tgt 2 will be .8800 based on S+R, and round numbers as the true S+R was at .8770

Tgt 3 will be .8665 based on S+R and weekly Fib 23% retracement of last current weekly swing.

Stop now moved to .9005

***UPDATE***

Trade update, tgt moved back to 0.8860 - market seems to be really slowing down and it would be nice to close out before the weekend. Also price seems to be making double doji/tweezer bottom on 4 hr, and USD has had quite a run over the past few days, so a retracement may be overdue??? We'll tighten the tgt, and leave the third position alone.

Second position closed @ .8875 for +135 pips

***UPDATE***

Third and finaly Aussie position was stopped out this morning @ .8913, based on a 100 pip trailing stop. Booking 83 pips in the process.

Side note:

You can use Necklines for future S+R, like Kiwi Example below

Waiting and Watching

2009-12-15T13:08:00.001-05:00

Waiting for...

Cable for breakout (looking like it wants to breakout to downside)
Guppy and usd/jpy for long (buy on dips bc we already missed entry)
Aussie - break out of triangle and take in either direction

and just watching Aud/jpy for short, and E/G for a pullback and then a short

(not trading either pair, just observing for future potential)

Dec12+13 - Shorting Euro and Kiwi +292 Pips +144 pips

2009-12-15T11:28:00.006-05:00

First Euro tgt already hit for 100 pips, and kiwi is moving along nicely also - will update this week!

***UPDATE***

Euro -

First position was closed out faily quickly on the Euro @ 1.4555 for 100 pips, and a day later the 2nd tgt got hit as well @ 1.4455 for +200 pips.

Also retentered on a successful retest of S+R at 1.4554 and will implement a 50 pips trailing stop on that third position, which is currently up +162 pips at 143.92, so either way +110pips on that position is locked.

Daily

240 min and 60 min

Kiwi

Originally wanted to take both tgts to .7050, however I decided to take some off the table based on quadruple support, and also as USD has been making large moves across the board tonight, I wouldn't want to get cought up in a retracement or sticky correction.

So first position closed out @ .7125 for +130 pips profit.

Will let second position continue to original tgt. Stop will be moved to .7200, therefore locking in 65 pips on this second position regardless.

(entry was .7265 on second position and .7253 on first)

240 min showing Quad support:

- Horizontal S+R, Trendline, Daily 100 SMA, Fib 61.8 and 76 retracement zone

Daily

***UPDATE***

Euro 3rd position closed out at 1.4360 for +190 pips. Total move is 1.4655 - 1.4360 = +292 Pips

Kiwi still in trade however I implemented a 100 pip trailing stop. Price currently @ .7111, giving us 154 pip profit and 54 pips locked in due to trailing stop.

***UPDDATE*** Dec1809

Well the bears gave it all they could but couldn't bring the Kiwi down to a triple bottom. That being said, I closed out the remaing Kiwi position @ market for +144 Pips.

Dec1009 - Euro Euro Euro!

2009-12-10T01:16:00.004-05:00

Must update, but got stopped out!

Reasons for entry:

Support from:
Resistance turned Support
Horizontal Support w/ 2nd bounce
100 sma on daily

Stochs overbought
Hidden bullish divergence
4 hr Chart showing potential dbl bottom w/ tweezer and indecision candles

Daily Gartly Pattern w/ 86 and 138 convergence @ bounce

Also USDX is showing signs of a pullback...

Longing...(to trade) Position Initiation

2009-12-08T17:40:00.003-05:00

Will also update but these two turned into losers also - not a good week!

Cable:

Long @ 1.6275 - 2 units

- 4th bounce of current support
- Divergence on MACD and Stochs
- Bullish Gartley 222 pattern w/ convergence @ bounce

GBP/JPY:

Long @ 143.80 - 2 units

- Price currently at S+R
- 1 hr stoch and MACD divergence
- Corrective wave may either be completed; looking to begin new wave 1, or at least have made an 'A'; and looking to complete 'B'
- Price currently in between 50 and 61.8% fib retracement of corrective swing
- Also USD/JPY looks like it may be going bullish and beginning a new wave cycle, while cable also looks bullish - which would add argument to Sterling gaining over Yen.

Waiting is a form of action in itself...

2009-12-07T12:37:00.002-05:00

Will be keeping an eye on these following set ups to unfold. Although these are on 4 hr charts, so it may take half a day to a day and a half for them to fully unfold and the trade to come to us.

Euro
Looks like price may have completed a 5 wave count and maybe in the beginning stages or a corrective wave. Will wait to watch and see if A and B start forming.

Note: I know the pic may be messy bc of smaller t/f counts, however the ones to pay attention to are the purple counts. 'A' may be potentially forming, and if it does we can wait for 'B' and then look for a short on 'C'

Cable
Same set up as Euro, although counts are a bit cleaner. Will keep an eye for A + B to form.

E/J
Really nice count on this one, looks as if Impulse wave has fully finished and heading over to first part of corrective. A looks to be int he process of completing. Want to long it but need more evidence, may consider also just waiting this out until C completes and riding the potential larger move.

G/J + U/J
Both have similar counts to one another, however they aren't as clean as the previous 3, so although I'll be watching, more attention will be paid to previously mentioned setups.

Cad
Who knows...thinking of scrapping it full time for u/j, but for now will just monitor.

Slight Changes and Potential Set-ups

2009-12-02T00:15:00.002-05:00

**Should have some decent setups w/i the next day or so following Fridays massive NFP news***

I'm making an adjustment to the traded pairs - kicking out the Kiwi and adding the Eur/Jpy. Reason being that I really want to hone my craft before I add more pairs and I'll be really busy during the holidays and throughout the new year, so since the Euro, Cable, EURJPY, and GBPJPY all move relatively similar to one another, the overall time I spend on analysis should be shortened, and I'll be able to pick the one or 2 pairs that have the cleanest set ups. The Cad will still be traded, bc it is a unique pair that has a mind of its own, and may provide an opportunity while the other 4 are in stalemate.

I will also be doing more USD index analysis to help tie in suspected Euro and Cable moves and will be posting pics of those set ups as well.

The following is a shot of my demo account @ BrocoTrader - they've got a lot of instruments on the MT4 platform. Aside from the USDX, I'll be glancing over the S&P, DJIA, Gold (spot and futures), Crude (spot and futures), and Silver.

That being said, I will post some analysis on potential set ups later. As the markets given us large moves since last Thursday, it will probably take another day or so for reliable setups to present themselves 240min - daily time frames.

Nov3009 - Euro Short +70 pips - 25 pips = + 50 pips

2009-11-30T12:32:00.027-05:00

After getting stopped out from Friday's Euro short, I had to take a step back to re-evaluate the situation. The gap didn't really phase me, but the rally we had after it made me rethink the whole trade. I figured the technicals were still leaning towards a short, because we weren't really getting higher highs and lows, and Sundays typically have really light volume, so maybe the market was just getting tossed around before normal liquidity came back into the picture.

Anyways the setup came for a larger A-B-C corrective wave that comprised the Sunday rally. After price seemed to slow down around the 78.6 fib retracement level I decided to give it another short.

So here's the details:

Entries:

1 - 2 units @ 1.5070 (mkt)

2 - 1 Unit @ 1.5075 (limit)

Stops @ 1.5105 (above the 86% Fib level)

Tgts:

1 - 1 unit @ 1.5005 - Already hit for 70 pips

2 - 1 unit @ 1.4955

3 - 1 Unit @ 1.4855

Here's a close up of the entry, on a 5 min chart

***UPDATE***

1st tgt hit @ 1.5005, stop for 2 remaining units moved to 1.5080. I'd like to keep the stop tighter, however price is making a corrective move and want to give it room.

Green line - tgt that got hit earlier today, and where price is being held back as support
Red line - adjusted stop @ 1.5085
Red Dashed lines - profit tgts 2 and 3

Possible Leading Diagonal retracement move as taken from SOTD by Todd Gordon and tweeked a bit to make up for passed time and my personal interpretation.

***UPDATE***

Well after the first tgt got hit, the stop was tightened to 1.5085 for the 2 remaining units. Unfortunately that stop got hit also. Basically I thought I was riding the beginning of a bearish impulsive wave 1 to the short side, but it was merely a correction to the 'a-b-c' correction, which wasn't really a correction.

Anyways my trading teacher saw this and got upset. I shouldn't have traded against the trend, bc the Euro has been in a massive rally, and should have only bought it on dips. If I were to short it should have only been after confirmation on larger timeframes(4 hr and daily). Sorry Elaine!!!! NO MORE MISTAKES!!!

Nov 2709 - Euro Stopped out! -90 pips

2009-11-30T12:17:00.000-05:00

I took this trade at the same time that I took the GBP/JPY short. I figured if the USD was going to gain, this would be a good call to short, it also had a very similar set up to the GBP/JPY, Cable, and USD/JPY (fib retracement) and although I started moving well at the beginning, on Sunday's open it gapped up big time, and continued to rally before eventually turning around again.

Trade stats:

Entry -
1 - 2 units @ 149.60 (mkt)
2 - 1 unit @ 149. 70 (limit)

Stop - 1.5050
Tgt - 1.4850
The enrty was at the red checkmark, and the stop was at the 'thumbs down' symbol. Don't mind the new entry and tgt horizontal lines as those are for my current short.

Made for a loss of 90 pips on the first position and 80 pips on the second. In retrospect my stop was a bit big for the Euro, something like the Cable or GBP/JPY is more fitting for this type of stop.

Nov2709 - GBP/JPY Cross-Analysis Short - how not to trade! - 105 pips

2009-11-27T17:11:00.010-05:00

This trade had a cool set up. Basically I looked at the USD/JPY, and saw that if my technicals were correct, the JPY was poised to gain against the USD. I also looked at the GBP/USD, and saw that the USD was poised to strengthen against the GBP...sooo, if that was the case then the JPY should gain on the GBP, and I could capitalize on another short.

Will post the JPY and GBP charts setting up later, but for now here's the GBP/JPY entry.

Basically what were looking at is price retraceing from the last huge swing down. Its retracing into the 50%-61.8% fib levels, in what I believe is a double zigzag wave correction before starting another impulsive wave down - possibly a wave 3 on a larger scale.

- First entry was a bit early as I really needed a lower high to confirm the move, I guess I let the trend line break and overall analysis get to my head and I jumped the gun. Second entry was on the lower high, that was safer, and gave me a better price - Patience Jason!

I felt a lot better after the second trendline was broken.

So here's the game plan:

Entries
1 - 2 units @ 143.00
2- 1 unit @ 143.15
Stop @ 144.55 (just about the 61.8 fib retracement
Tgts:
1 - 2 units @ 141.05
2 - remaining unit @ 139.55

***UPDATE***

Currently up 167 and 183 pips - price came a few pips short of hitting first tgt. If it comes back down I will manually close first tgt positions.

***UPDATE***

After price came super close to hitting my tgt it began moving against me and I decided to hang in there to see what would happen. Well after price moves in your favour 183+ pips in one swing and misses you tgt by only a cpl of pips, the moral of the story is:

1 - Don't get greedy
2 - Close out the portion of the trade that was supposed to be closed out
3 - move your stop to break even like you originally planned

Why? bc price can always go against you and turn a solid winner into a loser. Price rallied agaonst my short after news came out about Japanese finance ministers having an emergency meeting to discuss possible intervention to prevent the Yen from gaining further strength.

Had I did what I mention above I could have had a very profitable 1 position trade while getting stopped out on the other 2 @ break even.

The Red downward arrow is my entry, the red upward arrow is where I should have closed, and the green lines are my entries, along with where I should have moved my stop to.

I am guilty of having done this a cpl of times before - aka the 'Jason syndrome' lol....however recognizing this scenario and how to deal with it profitably has gotten easier over the past few weeks thanks to the help of a cpl of great ppl...thanks guys! it won't happen again....promise ;)

We're still in the trade though and stochs on the 60 min are crossed and looking to come out of overbought, and they rose pretty quickly on the 240min - an indication that the prevailing trend (down) is string and potentially still in tact. So lets ride with it and see.

***UPDATE***

Well as was well deserved, I finally got put out of my misery with this GBPJPY trade. I felt it coming and was actually releaved once I got shut out - talk about revenge trading!!!

Well the good news is it could have been worse - bc the stop tighter was moved tighter.

End result was a -105 pips on 2 positions and -85 pips on the third position.

Nov2609 - Possible Set-Ups and Elliott Practice

2009-11-27T00:36:00.000-05:00

Cable

- H+S formation
- Price looks to have just broken through Neckline support, and is retesting. Also making a potential wave 3.
- If counts are correct we can begin looking for a wave 4 and then short (also having the weight of evidence showing itself).
Blue horizontal line and rectangle are the potential turn around area based on 50% retracement of the 2-3 swing, S+R, and the 21 EMA - approx 1.6550 area, and target 162.50
- Alternative is we go rangebound and have to deal with 2-3 corrective waves before price makes up its mind. Aiming for the previous high of 1.6730 in the meanwhile
For now, though we just wait and see.

***UPDATE*** Restests Work!

Cad

This one is confusing the heck out of me atm. I've got 2 potential Elliot set ups, that are super messy, but based on price action and the daily chart it looks like it wants to go up. Will it try for 1.0730 and turn around, or continue up to 1.0850?

Daily is showing great buying pressure with a huge bullish candle yesterday and today's candle has a lower wick. But this one is also a wait and see.

Personally I think the 26th will be quiet bc its a Friday, Asia's crazy fireworks, and the U.S. has a 'half' trading day.

Nov2509 - GBP/JPY Short + 536 pips

2009-11-25T23:04:00.000-05:00

I've been trading this pair for the last week, and after it broke out of the ascending wedge the bears kept knocking @ the previous support of 146.37. So after it broke through, I decided to short again off the resistance retest (I tried shorting earlier but got stopped out by 70 pips - may blog it later).

trade stats:
entry - 2 postions @ 146.36
stop - 147.80 (also the 38% fib retracement from the ascending wedge breakout swing)
tgt 1 - 144.50 (also just above the 161.8% fib extension of breakout swing and previous S+R)
tgt 2 - 141.00 (just above the 261.8% fib extension of the breakout swing and previous S+R)

As I'm writing this post, price is @ 144.75, and I'm + 155 pips. Stop will be moved to B/E after first tgt hit.

**UPDATE**

First tgt got hit, locking in 186 pips, and the stop was then moved to 146.00, locking in 36 pips on the second position.

Price is now @ 142.86, making the second position + 350 pips. Stop now moved to 145.00 - locking in 130 pips.

Will be watching closely as today is U.S. Thanksgiving, meaning very light trading volume. Also with the way this pair has been screaming downward, I'd actually be happy with price going against us for a bit.

**UPDATE 2**

Second Target was successfully hit! The Yen gained across the board today - apparently what really got the move going was news that Dubai World asked to restructure it debt - raising concerns of credit default, and ushering in a new wave of risk aversion. Couple that with light volume, and you get crazy volatility like we saw in today's Asian session...WHATEVER, our targets got hit and thats all that matters.

Second Target was good for + 536 pips wow! Great First Post!

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MTF MGMT

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